THE ACTIVITY-FREE ATLANTIC REMAINS DORMANT...
2. The water isn't particularly warm in the "Main Development Region". You'll see blue and white indicating that a large portion of ocean where storms form and move over is average to slightly below average. That doesn't help with development.
When I issued by forecast, I said that long-tracked storms across the Atlantic were less concerning for me than home-grown systems. I stand by that, at least for the next 3 weeks. Again, Barry, which is our only named storm within the parameters of the season, formed off of a storm that came off land, went into the Gulf and circled back. It was a home-grown hurricane.
Typically the Atlantic basin doesn't really fire up until late August and September. We WILL see some storms form but as of right now I don't see a reason to change my thinking that we will see an "average" season overall.
JUST THE FACTS - SUMMARY
And what they should look like at 2PM
Clouds move in and become more numerous but if this model is correct, it isn't enough to stop strong storms later on. I know it doesn't sound quite right - but more sunshine = more bad weather in these types of situations.
And just a few hours later...
Disclaimer... not everyone will get rained on at the same time and some of you could completely miss out on storms... it's just how it works this time of the year. Inevitably I'll get the questions "what about MY town"... and with all due respect, I simply can't devote that much time to giving specifics in a situation like this because for the most part we won't know who's getting what until just before it's happening. The best I can do is give a blanket statement: Best chance of severe weather will be Camden, Gloucester, Salem, Western Atlantic, Burlington and Western Ocean counties. Your chances of seeing strong storms fizzles quite a bit towards the coast as a more stable environment exists there.
The Storm Prediction Center puts out their forecast daily. I seldom agree with it because it CHANGES SO MUCH. Yesterday we were in a "marginal risk" today we are in a "slight risk". I explained last night that regardless of what the map says...there WILL be severe weather around our area tonight. I like showing the map - but it's arbitrary. Severe storms can occur outside the lines. In yellow is where we have the best chance of seeing scattered strong storms though, and I DO happen to agree with this particular map.
As the front passes through, we will see COOLER air... but only slightly. Middle 80s. Humidity will remain pretty high. Unsettled weather with shower and storm chances could continue through Saturday if the front doesn't move far enough away from the coast. Stay tuned and be safe out there!
We don't often luck out when it comes to celestial events in South Jersey. More often than not, there's SOMETHING in the way to obfuscate what's going on above. We've been on the good side of fortune lately though and that will continue tonight for an event that is sure to provide some sights!
It's important to get AWAY from light pollution. If you live near a city, you'll have to get into a remote area. Fields and beaches work best!
We are officially in the thick of things. The hottest temps (average) get here in mid July and last through about mid August. Our averages are 86 during the day and 67 by night. This 5 week period that runs from July 12th until August 20th is widely known as the "Dog Days of Summer"... but WHY? Some say that it signifies hot sultry days “not fit for a dog,” others suggest it’s the weather in which dogs go mad. The Dog Days of Summer describes the most oppressive period of summer
In the summer, Sirius rises and sets with the Sun. On July 23rd, specifically, it is in conjunction with the Sun, and because the star is so bright, the ancient Romans believed it actually gave off heat and added to the Sun’s warmth, accounting for the long stretch of sultry weather. They referred to this time as diēs caniculārēs, or “dog days.” Obviously the radiation has no impact on our weather, but what did you expect them to think back then?
As if we haven't had enough severe weather this year already, we're staring down the barrel of what could be another very eventful day across our region. We've got a cold front out to the west already sparking some strong storms across PA. That activity is going to push east. Let's breakdown the quick facts for you.