THE ACTIVITY-FREE ATLANTIC REMAINS DORMANT...
2. The water isn't particularly warm in the "Main Development Region". You'll see blue and white indicating that a large portion of ocean where storms form and move over is average to slightly below average. That doesn't help with development.
When I issued by forecast, I said that long-tracked storms across the Atlantic were less concerning for me than home-grown systems. I stand by that, at least for the next 3 weeks. Again, Barry, which is our only named storm within the parameters of the season, formed off of a storm that came off land, went into the Gulf and circled back. It was a home-grown hurricane.
Typically the Atlantic basin doesn't really fire up until late August and September. We WILL see some storms form but as of right now I don't see a reason to change my thinking that we will see an "average" season overall.