Alright folks, buckle up this is gonna be one of those long posts.... I've never been known for my brevity after all...
Below you'll see winds could potentially get up to 100mph in certain parts of the state. Values decrease north and south of the center.... it still is NOT a humungous storm so that is why you see the values backing off from north to south HOWEVER i must caution you, if it takes a track sliding right along the coast, MOST will see hurricane force winds along and east of A1A.
Waves are REALLY building out there. Near the eye-wall waves are being measured at 26 feet. All that water has to go SOMEWHERE....that water is propagating westward...so even if the storm DOES remain off-shore there is still going to be significant flooding for some as the tides will get stacked.
The latest forecast guidance remains consistent with yesterday's idea showing the Carolinas. I've attached the current "spaghetti" plot. There ARE some outliers still which underlines there is STILL some uncertainty, especially in regards to where it end up by the end of this week. I know the HUGE question on everyone's minds up here in Jersey...."Is it going to impact our weather".
I'm working on getting you an answer. Right now, I still don't see a major or direct hit from this storm but we could get sideswiped with rain and wind... potentially some flooding. Where/if it makes landfall combined with the upper air dynamics will determine what, if any, impact it will have to our region. The window we are looking at is Thursday to Saturday.
2. Weakness in the ridge. We talked about how steering currents aloft are weakening, but let's go a step farther... there are two things that will contribute to an eventual jog to the north. A.) the stronger storms get, the more of a tendency to curve naturally and B.) as the ridge overtop weakens hurricanes look for the path of least resistance. Dorian will find the "escape route" when it opens up and be nudged along by a trough dropping down into the east.... THIS is the wildcard for OUR region late week. Does it get picked up and allowed to come this far north or does it skirt right out to sea after the Carolinas?
Scenario # 2 would spare the coast of the WORST of the storm as the eye would be just off-shore. This is the scenario I'm leaning towards at the moment. Still significant wind and flooding but the worst case would be avoided.
Scenario # 3 would be minor to moderate impact. Little wind but moderate flooding for some. It would be a quicker turn north and the entire coast would be largely forgiven. Unfortunately I think this is the least likely scenario.
So for the time being, we wait and watch. The window we are looking at for impact for Florida is late Monday and Tuesday. There will be A LOT of rain, there will be A LOT of wind. Track is going to determine everything. The Carolinas need to be very much on guard for the next few days because it is likely you'll see a significant impact out of Dorian. The slower it goes, the more concerning flooding becomes. Persistent on-shore flow means stacking of tides! Stay tuned!