It feels like we keep living the same thing over and over and over again... kinda like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, right? The fact is, we are stuck in a pattern conducive for severe weather. It's not very typical, but it DOES happen. It's not completely unheard of. We had some bad years in the 70s and 80s so there IS historical precedence. It's just been awhile since we've had so many events in a short period of time. A lot of it has to do with frontal boundaries and the positioning of high pressure to our southeast creating a "ring of fire" type pattern.
The next category we will look at is potential for damaging winds... I believe THIS is the biggest concern so I'll focus on this first. The SPC has us in the 15% risk. I think it's probably a little higher... 20-25% in my opinion.
The tornado threat is certainly there. Yes - the map says 2% but as I've explained countless times in the past, 2% is NOT 0%.
As an area of low pressure approaches the region there will be added vorticity meaning the likelihood of storms taking on some spin increases slightly. For this reason, I would NOT be too shocked is the NWS issued a tornado watch later, if not for us, then down to our Southwest. This is a look at our in-house weather model showing where rotation is possible. The brighter the color, the better the chance...
As mentioned above, the timeframe we are looking at is after 4pm. Most of the day will be dry. It concerns me that we've got the sun out there right now, winds out of the south on the surface but out of the west aloft, this means there is decent wind shear.
Now, take into account this is just a MODEL and the actual results could vary. It's just super important to pay attention. Not everyone will see storms. That's the disclaimer I always put out there. Just because you're not seeing something doesn't mean someone else isn't. The closer you get to the coast the less of a risk you're in.