TIMING: 3pm-7pm IMPACT: Damaging winds, small hail, torrential downpours, lightning REGION: Everyone. A bit more tranquil at the shore.
Well... we DID get a nice break from this stuff over the past couple days...so I hope you enjoyed it. For the 4th time this week we are looking at the prospect of some turbulent thunderstorms rolling through. The parameters for severe weather aren't as high as they were mid-week, but we should all be weather aware and alerted as to what couple play out.
We are currently under a "Slight Risk" for severe weather. I'll be the first to tell you...that doesn't really mean much. You see these categories: Marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate etc... I just like to tell you "Severe weather is likely". I think that clears up the confusion. Strong storms are possible across the entire region but not everyone will see them. Forecasting t-storms is fickle. As we saw with EACH event last week, someone may be perfectly calm while all h-e-double hockey sticks breaks out 10-15 minutes away.
Last week we saw pretty significant (for our region at least) parameters for tornadic activity and large hail. Today, the tornado threat isn't very high. There's not nearly as much "spin" in the atmosphere. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) still has a small portion of our viewing area (Salem, Gloucester, Camden points north and east) under a 2% risk... definitely important to pay attention. These numbers below don't impress me at all... and that's a good thing.
What you're looking at here is a model showing us what the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) numbers look like. This indicates to us forecasting how likely the atmosphere is to produce thunderstorms. When we get into the 3,500 range, which much of the region will, we open the door for strong storms. These are decent numbers in my opinion.
Here's a look at the potential radar image by 3pm. If you're planning on going to the beach don't let this stop you... but plan on packing up by 3-4pm.
With the sunny skies and high levels of humidity, the ingredients are certainly there for some strong storms.
Be safe out there and pay attention to your phone app! You can download the nor'easternick weather app by searching "noreasternick". It will come up as the SJNTV Weather App. We send push notifications of severe weather directly to your phone. Check it out!