There's no doubt whatsoever that 2019 has been an extremely interesting, dynamic and extreme year for weather in New Jersey. As we close out the year, there are no exceptions! Back in October I told you I believed that overall November would be colder than average, a bit more active as well. So far, that has come to fruition. Here's a look at our current month-to-date anomaly map. It shows you where we are relative to average...
WELL below normal for much of the nation. This general pattern is what I see shaping up for most of the Winter, based on the oceanic patterns in place, by the way.
Now, let's look at these temperature profiles. Here's an animation showing where we go from Monday afternoon to Tuesday night. That is QUITE the change.
I'm looking at only getting to about 36 for a high on Wednesday. If that plays out, it will be the COLDEST November 13th since 1968. The record for coldest high temp is 39. We can beat it.
Generally when it is its negative phase (below the solid black line) we see cooler temperatures flow into the northeast and mid-atlantic due to a blocking pattern. Here's what that looks like on a map:
It looks like we peep above the line briefly which correlates with my idea we may see a stretch of average temps after the cold blast.
And what that looks like on a map. Ridging (rising of the jet) in the west and dipping in the east.
If you're a winter weather lover, you're hoping this exact pattern can hold through the heart of the season. Too soon to say yay or nay but it IS in my forecast, so I expect that to be the case.