Cover Photo: Vinny Vonnoni
The first frame shows the reflectivity... this is the radar image you're all familiar with. Very intense rain and lightning indicated there. You can almost make out what looks to be a "hook" to the northwest. To give you a better idea of what's going on inside the storm, it's important to look at the velocity tool within the radar. This tells us where the winds are going.
There's a bullseye on the Philly Metro area as well as South Jersey today. As noted above in the "basic facts" I believe the best chance for the most turbulent weather will be through portions of Salem, Camden, Gloucester and Burlington counties today. Everyone has a CHANCE of seeing a strong storm so I'm not going to answer questions for individual towns. Less of a chance at the coast, better chance on the mainland. Just because one town doesn't see anything doesn't mean the next one over couldn't get clobbered. It's the nature of thunderstorms and severe weather. What's good for the goose isn't always good for the gander.
A 5% chance of storms with large hail...
And a 5% of tornadic thunderstorms...
Here are a couple of the parameters we look at when trying to forecast turbulent weather.
2. CAPE. This shows us how much convective energy is potentially available. The higher the number, the better the chances. Look at all the red. Now, with morning clouds there could be a limit here so that may be overdone but WATCH OUT if the skies clear early afternoon. That will only exacerbate the situation.
3. And of course, future radar. This shows where storms are most likely to be at a given time.
Reach out anytime. I do my best to get you the answers you need. If there's anything I left out, let me know. I hope you learn a little something from these blogs. I have fun putting them together!