Happy Sunday Morning All -
So sorry for the LATE update. I am away on a quick getaway in DC. I'm trying to keep you all updated as much as possible but honestly, there isn't a whole lot to go over. Certainly no big changes for us in South Jersey. I've tweaked the numbers a LITTLE bit since yesterday but no gigantic shifts anywhere. The National Weather Service has seemed to back off their 12"+ forecast for North Jersey and I applaud them. I had 4-8" up there. I think that is much more reasonable. Any way you slice it, no matter who you are, how many years of forecasting experience you have and what organization you forecast for... one thing is consistent - the first storm of the season is ALWAYS the hardest to nail down. Why? We are all still in Summer/Fall mode. We haven't made the transition to Winter forecasting just yet. The first storm is a wakeup call and puts our skills to the test.
We wake up to some light showers moving in. A wintry mix west of Philly with perhaps some ice / sleet pellets in NW Camden, Gloucester and Mercer Counties. That idea hasn't changed. Something else that hasn't changed? Warm air will rush into the system with winds out of the southeast. This will drive temps into the upper 40s. That equates to plain old boring rain. Temp profile after lunch:
What radar will end up looking like
Rainfall totals generally 1/2" to 1". I'm happy with this forecast...
Phase 1 of the storm is over and done with by early evening. Rain starts to dry out and phase 2 begins. THIS is the tricky part. It's literally boom or bust. There's no in-between. The transfer of energy either happens the right way and there is moisture available for snow throughout Monday or there isn't. Plan and simple. Miller B storms are close to impossible to nail down 100%. Let's look at the 5k foot temps... we need these BELOW 0 to support the development of snow. This happens when the northwest winds settle in again.
Here's what the model is doing for SNOW on the backend of the system by Monday Afternoon / Evening... Now, one thing is important to note... the NAM tends to overdo precip. So it's likely overdoing the amount of snow that will move down from the north and pivot around the secondary low. But nonetheless, going in line with my thinking that a burst of snow is likely on Monday.
I really want to see if this is a new trend and if it's picked up on the other models through this afternoon before making any changes to my thinking. For now, I'm sticking with the very MINOR tweaks on my map from this morning...
If, as the NAM model suggests, there is enough moisture leftover, there could absolutely be a period of moderate snow. Where that sets up exactly is still in question though. Generally South of Trenton I'm going a coating to a couple inches. I think it's a safe call. 2-4" North of Trenton. 4-8 for extreme North Jersey.
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