I'm gonna be honest with you - it's hard for me to hide my enthusiasm and excitement when talking about possible snow in our area. Really though... it's been over 2 years since our last decent storm. We are way overdue. With that said though, we have to go into this very level headed and not let emotion override fact. The truth is, while models are favorable for measurable snow right now, that could very well change tomorrow. We need a trend to develop and STAY PUT in order for this to work out for snow lovers.
Alright so let's get into it. This weekend will be nice. WARM...actually, VERY WARM... but nice. Looks like if there is a "wetter" of the two weekend days it will be on Saturday. Better chance of rain. Not a washout, but some scattered showers on radar. Sunday could actually turn out to be an awesome day if the sun can come out.
We are going to be on the WARM side of a storm that will cut through the Great Lakes. It will move to the northeast and then pull down cold air from the northwest. Now, my question then becomes: Does that cold air get here in time for a quick moving storm on Monday to bring any wintry weather? Right now I'm leaning towards probably not. We shall see! There's a chance some mixing is possible especially along I-95. This was a system that was modeled WELL to the south and east the other day, not it's right through our region.
The bigger deal is the storm ridding its coattails. Looks like low pressure will form on the back end of that system right off the coast of the Carolinas. I WISH we could just leave it at that... but obviously in this field nothing is ever straight forward and easy. We will actually have TWO different storms that need to converge to form our nor'easter. So tracking two different pieces of energy is obviously more taxing than tracking one. More room for error.
Here's what the GFS is saying for the second storm:
It supposed the transfer of energy and consolidation process happens sooner and therefore we get in on some snow throughout the day on Wednesday with the rain/snow line east of Hammonton. I actually prefer the GFS solution. The EURO is a bit more complex.
Here's the storm arriving initially:
More moisture rich for sure... heavier snow too. Similar to the GFS but it wants to consolidate a little later. With the EURO we could see snow to rain to snow. Here's as it pulls away...
I like the position of the consolidated low. If it was 25-50 miles farther east I'd be happier.
At any rate...rain or snow we need to watch this storm at the coast. Of course it will be coming in at a bad time. New moon = higher tides = tidal flooding etc.
I'd love to be able to tell you right now exactly what will play out but that's just not possible. There are A LOT of hours between now and Wednesday. I think we will see a trend emerge one way or the other through the weekend. Consistency is key. Stay tuned!
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