If you are a Winter weather lover, there are some high chances you're not too thrilled with me or my Winter outlook for this season - and rightfully so! I'm not happy myself. Now, while I believe it will be an overall WARMER than average year, that does NOT mean it's going to be another year without snow. Last year we had record low snow across all of New Jersey. Statistically it's extremely unlikely to have that kind of outcome again, so I stick by what I said in my outlook a month ago: We will have more snow than last year.
It's ALL about timing and getting a storm to move in with cold air in place. Sounds simple right? It's anything but! It can be extremely frustrating to figure out...watch, wait and see. It's the name of the game. Sooo does that mean we've got snow coming soon? Hold your horses. Not quite YET, but things could get interesting as we head into December. Let's first talk about the storm that will flip the pattern around TO get to a more favorable spot...
SOCCER MOM WITH 5 KIDS SUMMARY
-Rain moves in Monday morning, done by late afternoon
-Pockets of heavy rain with some embedded thunderstorms are possible
-1/2" to 1" generally across the state
-A brief window of 2-4 hours of gusty winds 45-55mph
-Minor tidal flooding expected, SHOULD avoid big issues due to timing of the high winds
WEATHER WEENIE ANALYSIS
Here's a look at the upper level pattern for tomorrow:
Where you see the light orange colors is where high pressure is. Right over us for Sunday which will equate to a beautiful, sunny day. Nicer than yesterday, nicer than today. Now, see that blip of blue over the deep south? That is our developing storm for Monday.
Here's what the upper level pattern looks like on Monday night:
BIG change. Now if ONLY this was positioned 250-500 miles farther east. THEN we'd be in for a whopping for a SNOW storm. Sadly the center of the low will travel through Western PA putting us in the dreaded WARM sector of the storm. Sigh.
Here's what radar should end up looking like on Monday afternoon
There's a lot going on here. Areas of heavy rain forecast over New Jersey... now, cmon. You know this is a model and the actual outcome is likely to change a little, don't put all your eggs in one basket with any particular model. This is just showing what is most likely to occur. It's going to rain. Point blank. I wouldn't schedule anything outdoors. See the red number over West Virginia? That is the center of the storm. 999 represents the central pressure. It's a rather weak storm. We don't really get things cranking until we see pressures fall into the 980s and below.
The storm will be strong enough to force cold air in behind it and bring some measurable snow to places like Indiana and Ohio. But since it will be to our WEST, we tap into those south to southeast winds running counter-clockwise around the storm. We will be in the 60s. Boo! Here's what we are looking at in terms of rain (again, just ONE model's idea)... generally 1/2" to 1". Of course it will vary by location and vary by where the heaviest bands decide to situate themselves.
The number one concern I've got with this system is the wind. It won't be the case ALL day, but there is probably a 3-4 hour window where gusts could exceed 45-55mph. We've seen this very same situation unfold several times this year. This one will be no different. The lines of equal pressure (isobars) will be close to one another. This makes for a wind tunnel effect on our region. The low level jet stream winds (about 5k feet above our heads) and running at 80-90mph:
All it takes is a heavy downpour to tap into that energy and translate it to the surface. Usually that number is about 70%. So let's split the difference here. Let's say the low level jet is 85mph. 60-70% coming down to the surface would be 50-60mph! Here's what the EURO is saying for Wind gusts late morning / early afternoon on Monday
Pretty much falls in line. Again, this won't be an ALL day extreme wind event, we are looking at a narrow windy but on either side of those higher gusts we are going to see pretty "standard" (for NJ) gusts 20-30mph. Winds will start picking up by mid morning and the worst should be over by mid afternoon. We will watch the timing. Take this opportunity to secure those loose lawn items and decorations.
Now one thing I brought up a few days ago was the prospect of TIDAL FLOODING. Folks up and down the coast should still watch this closely but I think you can breathe a sigh of relief. I'm about 85% sure we will escape with just minor flooding in some spots. We've got the full moon and we've got the on-shore flow BUT as we saw with one of the tropical storms back over the Summer, the strongest winds won't come in until LOW tide, which helps. Winds will be out of the southeast which is better than the northeast. I'm not expecting stacking. As the winds shift, more of a west/southwest wind is possible and my friends along the Delaware Bay could get some flooding on the back end on Monday night. So be on the look out for that.
Here are some tide charts from across the area... as is usually the case, we expect tides to be higher the farther south you go into Cape May county.
Some lingering showers are possible by Tuesday but temps come way down and remain below average for the rest of the week.
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