I know MANY of you out there are just waiting and hoping for sustainable Spring weather... myself included. This Spring hasn't been bad at all, I have to admit. We've had PLENTY of nice days and there are more to come. That doesn't come without SOME issues though. I don't think we are done with the cooler weather, just yet. Now when I say cooler, I'm talking temps in the 50s... perhaps another few nights where we dip into the lower 30s even...
This is why I say don't plant any fragile plants until early May. We can and still do get frosts and freezes right through the end of April. I planted my stuff in MARCH last year and remember how annoying it was running outside to cover everything. NEVER doing that again!
So going forward I think we see cooler than average temps by mid-month. Why? Well there are a couple reasons. We've gotta look at different upper air patterns and oscillations to paint the picture.
Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) is negative right now, but it should go positive in that timeframe. That puts a ridge of high pressure over the west coast and a trough (dip in the jet) over the east.
2. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is positive now but is forecast to go negative. This too helps supply colder air to the eastern third of the country.
So THIS is what should end up happening in the 8-14 day range...the "coldest" air... or I guess I should say the greatest departure from average will be across the south. For us out temps should range from the mid 50s to lower 60s which will only be SLIGHTLY below average. This pattern won't last though... we crawl out of it just beyond this timeframe.
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