Well. Here we are! It's Monday morning and we've been talking about this storm for DAYS. It's a tricky little sucker as there are a lot of moving parts that we had to nail down, but I'm more confident now, than I was yesterday. Model guidance was all over the place, even up til about bedtime last night. This happens in these situations. It's important to use computer data as a TOOL to get to a forecast but not be 100% reliant on it. If forecast maps were issued solely based on what the models were doing, you'd see changes every few hours. It's my job to look at a situation and figure out what is most likely - and then run with that.
Even with the minor changes, this will not be a large event for MOST in South Jersey... Well... Actually, I guess it depends on what your definition of large is. For me it's over 4". 95% of you will stay under that. If you're reading this along the coast, Cape May county, Southern Cumberland, Atlantic and Salem Counties... you're not in for a whole lot. Does the moderate to heavy band of snow even get to you? I'm willing to bet that there will be many that don't get anything. Nonetheless, I've got you with SOME potential at <1".
Some scattered rain showers are possible from now until early afternoon, perhaps a little bit of a wintry mix too. I don't think our snow chance really enters the picture until after lunch and then our best best of a burst of snow comes in late afternoon and into the evening. It's gone and out after midnight.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY:
This is in effect for Camden, Gloucester, Burlington and Ocean Counties in South Jersey. This is where the POTENTIAL for 1-3" of snow exists. To the south? Less. It's warmer. More wet than white.
Now to figure out when that transition happens, we need to look at the 5,000 foot temperature profile. This is telling. We want the numbers to be a bit below 0. If we are at 0 or slightly above, we don't have as good a chance of seeing snow.
3PM... getting better
9PM... cold enough for some dynamic cooling.
My updated snowfall map... you'll be able to see I've made some changes. Nothing drastic, just tweaks here and there based on changes in guidance. So I guess the bare bones forecast is this: The farther north you go into New Jersey, the more snow you'll see. Along the coastal plain little to nothing and interior South Jersey COULD get up to a few inches, leaning on the lower end of the forecast though. We are now officially in "Now Casting" Mode, so feel free to post your observations as we go through the day.
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