It‘s the game we play with every storm. What kind of precip are we gonna her and how much? So far our current storm has behaved as thought bringing rain to South Jersey and ice/snow to the north. What happens from this point is what needs to be answered.
As I explained multiple times, what we see is highly dependent on how quickly the transfer of energy from the parent low to the coastal low can happen, where the development of said low occurs exactly, and IF there is enough precipitation on the back end to actually being snow our way.
Here’s the current NAM and what it shows:
This puts the low in a good spot to be able to create the cold air needed for snow. If this situation were to play out verbatim I could see a few inches across portions of South Jersey.
Temp profiles certainly seem to look decent. Rain/snow line crashes southeast by tomorrow night.
This is what you want to see happen If you’re a snow lover. The trend is our friend (So far). Will other guidance cave to the NAM? Historically it is a “juicy“ model and overdoes precip. And keep in mind that the projected accumulation map put out by the model is based on a 10:1 ratio. I believe that will actually end up being lower which brings down the totals.
As I type, Mount Holly pulled the trigger and has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of our area:
Later tonight I will review everything and issue an updated forecast map if I feel one is warranted! Stay tuned!