NJ on the Naughty List: Powerful Winds, Heavy Rain & Power Outages?

Merry Christmas Eve everyone! I hope you have a safe, happy and healthy holiday.


Let's get right down to brass tacks. We've got a potent storm heading our way. No surprises here, or at least, there SHOULDN'T be any surprises as we've been talking about this potential since Sunday.


I know there are some of you who have been asking "well... what if it fizzles... what if the models are wrong?" Look - there's always that chance that things aren't as bad as forecast... but that's a GOOD thing, right? Regardless though, would you rather me downplay it HOPING the models are wrong or have you prepared in the event the storm does meet its full potential? Seems like a no-brainer to me. Also this really isn't about the models. It comes down to physics. We've got a strengthening high pressure system pushing to the east and a deepening (again strengthening) low pressure system approaching from the west. We are in the middle. The gradient tightens up and we get the wind.


The gradient will bring winds 40-50mph on its own. The strongest winds will be reliant on some heavy rain, perhaps even a squall line with thunderstorms, coming through LATE tonight. It's with that we could see the 60-70mph gusts primarily after 11pm.


So let's answer those very important question:


WHAT:

A very strong arctic cold front approaching from the when bringing damaging winds out of the SOUTHEAST by this evening and a period of heavy rain late tonight and early tomorrow morning.


WHEN:

Winds slowly pick up through the afternoon but really get going after 6pm. If I were to pinpoint the "worst" of the wind it would be 8pm-2am. The heaviest rain holds off until midnight with perhaps a squall line moving through in the wee hours of the morning.


WHERE:

Everyone is under the gun. You're not gonna be able to get away from the winds. Mainland communities I expect max wind gusts with this event 50-60mph, at the shore a little higher perhaps closing in on 70mph and that is why a HIGH WIND WARNING Is in effect for the coast. Higher probability of seeing those damaging gusts.



Here's the timing of it all...


Most of the day should be dry. Looks like a few scattered showers are possible ahead of the main event but if you're running errands this afternoon, I'm not seeing any issues. This is a SLOW moving storm system. At 4PM, the rain is still to our west.

Round 1 of heavy rain moves in after 9pm and will be here until just after midnight

A final push of heavy rain, this one perhaps with some embedded thunderstorms, comes through very early in the morning. 2-5am. Another round of VERY heavy winds are possible if we tap into that low level jet stream energy

On the wind front we are fine right now... but through the course of the day it will become noticeably windier.

Winds out of the southeast gusting to around 40mph possible by 2pm... by 11pm we see those 50-60mph gusts start

And as that final push of heavy rain moves through, we are looking at potentially those 70mph gusts at the coast.

Temperatures behind the front will PLUNGE by tomorrow morning. If you're an early riser, you may still see temps in the 50s when you wake but by late morning we will be down into the 30s. Blustery tomorrow but no extreme winds!

We will walk you through this storm from start to finish. Just take this opportunity to secure loose items outside and charge your devices JUST in case a power outage finds itself in your area.


Merry Christmas to you all! - Love Nick, Brandon, Skye and Zeus.

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