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Potential Coastal Storm, Need to Watch Closely...Snow Chances?

A couple weeks ago I outlined the first 3 weeks of December as a period that needed to be watched for potential snow. We've had our first flurries of the season but my gut tells me that's not "it". I still believe we will sneak something in before Christmas to get the season going and I absolutely 110% stand by my assertion that we WILL have more snow than last year... I really don't think that is very hard to do. I say that almost tongue in cheek because of how abysmal last season was.

There are things that are lined up the right way for SOMETHING to happen along the coast soon... So to put this in a way that everyone can understand essentially the players are on the field. Will they perform or not? THAT is the question. Let's talk about specifics.

  1. We've got what LOOKS to be a negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) which means blocking will be in place WAY to the northeast. That ingredient while not totally essential, DOES help. We will see if this actually plays out. If you're a cold and snow lover, you WANT the indices to be NEGATIVE or below that thick black line in the middle. It is currently forecast to be in favorable territory

2. We need cold air obviously. Nowhere near cold this weekend in fact we see temps SOAR into the lower 60s but how many times can we count where we went from 60 to snow? Multiple! We will only be warm because a storm will pass us just to the west putting us in a situation where winds will be out of the SOUTH. But look at where we go by MONDAY! The freezing line at 5,000 feet is WELL to our south and east which is where we want it.

3. Finally, we need a storm. Looks like we will have one. But where does it track and how many PIECES are involved in the formation of it? There are multiple types of storms. Miller As & B's and clippers. This one appears to be a Miller B which means 2 separate pieces of energy need to come together to make it happen. They are a pain in the you-know-what to forecast. My least favorite types of storms.

Here's what the GFS paints:

And the EURO:

Differences exist between the two. GFS brings measurable snow to almost the entire state... EURO brings it to I-95 points north and west. We shall see. Just giving you a "heads up!" on this potential. A lot will change between now and then. Worth watching though. No need to run out and get the bread, milk and eggs though. I'd say by Sat/Sun we will have a better idea of how it will play out.

Just know that a shift WEST would mean RAIN and a shift EAST would mean a better chance of SNOW!

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