T-Storms, Damaging Winds, Heavy Rain, Tidal Flooding & Power Outages?

Geez... WHAT a title... but it's all true. We could be looking at a very stormy Monday across our region unfortunately. It will get here as you're heading out the door for work and school and start to relax a bit later in the afternoon. Let's jump into the details... first with the short summary, then with the in-depth analysis.


SOCCER MOM WITH 5 KIDS SUMMARY:

-Rain arrives between 5-7am from southwest to northeast

-Thunderstorms are possible both in the morning and early afternoon

-Those storms could further enhance the wind threat

-Gusts over 60mph with individual thunderstorms are possible

-1/2" to 1" generally with locally higher amounts possible

-Winds will be out of the SOUTHEAST, even without storms gusts will still be 40-50mph

-Tidal flooding in the morning, touching minor, could come close to moderate on the Bayshore side.


FULL ANALYSIS

An intense area of rain and wind will be moving into our region by tomorrow morning. Currently the storm is positioned in the deep south and will slowly work northeast climbing into the Carolinas and Virginias. The first showers should get here just before daybreak. Here's what radar should look like as you are waking up:

Where you see the oranges, and in some cases, red...that is where the thunderstorms and very heavy rain is possible. that's also where in theory the strongest winds could occur. Now, I have to be 110% transparent here... that's my style... just because I'm calling for potential gusts over 60mph doesn't mean it WILL happen for everyone. The dynamics are set for that to happen though so I would take the measures needed to protect stuff in your hard etc.


Winds will slowly start picking up around midnight:

They'll be out of the southeast 10-15mph, a little higher at the coast but nothing crazy. The start of the on-shore flow will help bring water in from the ocean for high tide Monday morning. A round of minor flooding likely for pretty much everyone, especially in Cape May county and the Bayshore communities, but I'll touch on that in a moment.


Here's what our winds could look like at 6AM

They start picking up for everyone region-wide. Sustained 20-30 at the coast, 15-20 on the mainland. At this time the rain is just getting going so random gusts are possible but the strongest winds likely hold off until around lunch... an hour or two on either side of noon.


Winds in the afternoon around 2pm:

Widespread SUSTAINED winds 20-30mph with gusts looking like this:

I think it's safe to put out there that general gusts will be 45-55mph, with isolated 60mph+ gusts at times if those thunderstorms materialize.


Why is this happening? Well... we've gotta look above our heads at 5,000 feet at what the low level jet is doing. Winds up there are gonna be running about 80-90mph. When you get heavy showers and storms, SOME of that energy (60-70%) can translate to the surface. That's where these numbers are coming from. There's a method behind the madness.

Now, let's talk tidal flooding. The numero uno concern for anyone living at the coast when it comes to these storms. We've got a full moon in place. That brings the tide levels up naturally. We've got the on-shore flow that sets in which enhances it. So WHY are we going with minor flooding when all the variables would normally point to moderate? Timing. 3 days ago I thought the strongest winds would get here in the morning and THEN we WOULD be looking at more flooding. IF they hold off until LOW TIDE, then we are in a good spot. Here's a chart that I think illustrates it very well.

Look at the dark yellow / mustard line at the very bottom. See how it goes up roughly a foot? That is the "surge" from the storm. It comes in around noon, AS THE TIDE IS GOING OUT. If it was 2-3 hours sooner, we could be looking at a different outcome. Nonetheless, shifts happen last minute. I would take the extra precautionary measures JUST in case. The timing is razor thin here and I could much rather have your err on the side of caution than be caught by surprise.


Here are the current tide charts for forecast heights:






Most concerned about the Bayshore side as the southeast winds will fill up the Delaware Bay! Could definitely see moderate.


Stay tuned for updates throughout the day. I'll be here!


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NOR'EASTER NICK

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