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Will the "Trend be our Friend" Next Week?

We've been talking abou this storm potential for a few days now JUST because it's a holiday week. To be 110% clear here, I have not and will not make a forecast this far out...but I WILL point you towards "something is possible" to give you a heads up if you're traveling early in the week...that's all! My intention is not to get you worked up but rather educated and informed so you can make all the decisions needed to get through the holiday.


A couple days back the setup looked a little more impressive for snow for portions of PA and NEW ENGLAND... a *little* wintry precip for NJ but mainly rain. Models developed a coastal storm off-shore but have since been slowly backing away from that idea and are going with more of a frontal passage with any organized low WELL off-shore. This would be GOOD news for our area, especially at the shore as we wouldn't be looking at big flooding concerns.


Here's the upper air pattern at about 18 k feet up. What you're looking at is the trof (dip in the jet). I've drawn dashed lines to show where the axis of the trof is. See how it's oriented northeast to southwest? That is a POSITIVE tilt. Not what you want for a winter storm. If it were to flip and go NEGATIVE with a tilt going from northwest to southeast, THEN you'd see something pop.