Every single year... and I mean EVERY year... we hear folks in mid to late December saying "When is Winter going to show up? When is it going to snow??"... Look, I LOVE snow. I'm probably the biggest fan of snow out there in South Jersey, but it's important to have patience and watch things evolve. Right now? We are in an absolutely HORRIBLE pattern. The pacific jet is overrunning the country with warm air, the southeast ridge is guiding most storms to our northwest which puts us in the warm sector which brings rain. Blah.
That darn Southeast ridge is quite literally the bane of my existence in the Winter. It can totally bust a seasonal forecast if it doesn't lift out - or at least move a little to the east. It CAN help us out from time to time IF cold air is present flowing in from the north, but those instances are few and far between. We need our upper air pattern to evolve in such a way where cold air isn't just transient, it gets here and stays locked in. So far, we just don't have that.
Am I concerned? No... not yet. If we get to mid January and things haven't starting flipping around, THEN I will be concerned. Until then, the forecast, as far as I'm concerned, has worked out as thought. Cold November, warmer December and a change coming our way for January. The ingredients are on the table. Will they come together and make a tasty dinner? THAT is the big question obviously.