Let's cut the chit chat and get right down to brass tacks. It comes as no surprise (hopefully) that we are talking about the impacts from this developing storm for tomorrow. It's a storm we've been covering since Friday and it has certainly evolved over time. While there have been tweaks to the forecast, it hasn't changed drastically. I DO believe there will be measurable snow for many in South Jersey by tomorrow night. It's all about 1 word repeated multiple times. Location, location, location.
The BEST chance of measurable snow will be through Camden, Gloucester & Burlington Counties. That is where we have a Winter Weather Advisory in effect. Given the latest data coming in, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the advisory upgraded by tomorrow morning.
I think a general 1-3" is possible in these areas. Honestly... and you know me by now well enough to know I put all my cards on the table. This one has me a bit concerned because the potential for OVER-PERFORMANCE exists. I'm hesitant to pull the trigger on it because I've seen situations like this unfold in the past. We go low and all of a sudden the storm decides to dump much more than expected. It's weather - it happens. Right now there are multiple things I need to take into consideration before bumping the forecast up any. I've tweaked the map I issued last night to reflect the newest data coming in a bit colder and wetter. You'll see my thoughts below.
Let's time it out for you.
7AM - Snow is on the other side of the Delaware River and in North Jersey.
Between 12 and 4 the temps start falling and the snow finds itself into South Jersey.
A period of moderate to heavy snow is possible after dinner, into the evening.
The storm wraps up and heads off-shore after midnight.
I just want you to know A LOT of thought goes into these forecasts. I just don't throw numbers on a map and I'm done with it. I carefully consider all solutions and come up with the MOST LIKELY scenario. This is what it's looking like right now. The ONLY concern I have is it over-performing in areas. It's pretty much a given that North Jersey will get pounded. I'm sticking with my 4-8" forecast up there. For everyone else? Less than that, but there's potential... mainly AWAY from the coast.
Intensity of precipitation can make or break this forecast. Last December 5th we had 0.19" of liquid, but 4.8" of snow yielded from it. How cold will it be aloft? That's what we have to figure out. For right now, I'm comfortable with these numbers. I may update ONE more time early tomorrow morning but at this point we are about to enter "Now Casting" mode. Do I see this as a plowable snow for most of South Jersey? Probably No. Do I see it as a nuisance that will slow down travel and may force you to break out the shovels for the first time of this season? Yes. Especially through interior South Jersey. I would NOT be shocked to see some heavy banding set up over say Burlington county which could yield totals inconsistent with the rest of the area.
There is indication of an inverted trough setting up that could amplify totals on the mainland. It’s not crazy to believe that there could be some “jackpot” zones of 4”+ over central jersey perhaps down into burlington.
Here’s the latest run of the NAM showing it’s snow solution. This shows the potential for those areas of over-performance.
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